TD10 / TD12 (2005)
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The complex genesis of Katrina involved the interaction of a tropical wave, the middle tropospheric remnants of Tropical Depression Ten, and an upper tropospheric trough. This trough, located over the western Atlantic and the Bahamas, produced strong westerly shear across Tropical Depression Ten, causing it to degenerate on 14 August approximately 825 n mi east of Barbados. The low-level circulation gradally/'>ually weakened while continuing westward, and it eventally/'>ually dissipated on 21 August in the vicinity of Cuba. Meanwhile, a middle tropospheric circulation originating from Tropical Depression Ten lagged behind and passed north of the Leeward Islands on 18-19 August. A tropical wave, which departed the west coast of Africa on 11 August, moved through the Leeward Islands and merged with the middle tropospheric remnants of Tropical Depression Ten on 19 August and produced a large area of showers and thunderstorms north of Puerto Rico. This activity continued to move slowly northwestward, passing north of Hispaniola and then consolidating just east of the Turks and Caicos during the afternoon of 22 August. Dvorak satellite classifications from the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB) of the Tropical Prediction Center (TPC) began at 1800 UTC that day. The upper tropospheric trough weakened as it moved westward toward Florida, and the shear relaxed enough to allow the system to develop into a tropical depression by 1800 UTC 23 August over the southeastern Bahamas about 175 n mi southeast of Nassau. The depression was designated Tropical Depression Twelve rather than “Ten” because a separate tropical wave appeared to be partially responsible for the cyclogenesis, and, more importantly, the low-level circulation of Tropical Depression Ten was clearly not involved.
Pat
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE HAS A COMPLEX GENESIS THAT LIKELY INCLUDES A MID-LEVEL REMNANT OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN. A REVIEW OF SATELLITE AND RAWINSONDE DATA OVER THE PAST WEEK OR SO SUGGESTS THAT A SECOND DISTURBANCE APPROACHED AND COMBINED WITH THE MID-LEVEL REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ON 20 AUGUST. BECAUSE IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO DETERMINE WHICH OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS IS ASSOCIATED WITH TODAY'S GENESIS...WE HAVE ELECTED TO USE THE DESIGNATION TWELVE RATHER THAN TEN FOR THE NEW DEPRESSION. THIS SITUATION DIFFERS FROM LAST YEAR'S REGENERATION OF IVAN...IN WHICH THE LOW-LEVEL REMNANT OF THAT SYSTEM REMAINED A DISTINCT FEATURE THAT COULD BE FOLLOWED CONTINUOUSLY UNTIL IT REGENERATED.
Words from Stacy Stewart at NHC from last year... like I said at the time this may have been the thinking... doesn't mean thinking can't change does it?
Pat
Like I said earlier, it would have been the K storm last year whether it was called TD10 or TD12.
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